As uncertainties peak with the Taliban taking control in Afghanistan, several commercial aircraft have started avoiding Afghan airspace. Experts believe that while it is difficult to predict if and when normal commercial airline operations will resume in the war-torn country, the situation might come back to normal for international airlines flying over Afghanistan airspace sooner.

Owing to the uncertainties on the ground, major airlines including United Airlines, British Airways and Virgin Atlantic diverted their flights on Monday to avoid Afghanistan airspace. On Monday morning, the Chicago-Delhi Air India flight also had to change course following the airspace was reported “open but uncontrolled by Air Traffic Control (ATC)”.

Speaking to India Today, former director of flight safety for Indian Airlines, Captain SS Panesar said, “At the moment, the situation on ground is very fluid due to uncertainties. It is not clear how many people are working at the Kabul ATC and are there any radar experts working on not. I think it would be advisable to wait for 2-3 days before there is more clarity”.

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Experts don’t see the problem for overflying international flights in long term once a government is settled in Kabul. In such fluid situations, situation international air traffic depends heavily on the neighbouring countries.

Maximum time for Indian commercial aircraft flying over Afghanistan is not more than 20-30 minutes and it will depend on neighboring countries like Pakistan, Iran, Kazakhstan and Russia, if they provide airspace to the Indian commercial aircraft,” Panesar said.

Even during the previous stint of the Taliban government in Afghanistan, they had a civil aviation ministry that allowed their airspace to the overflying international flights. Experts believe that in absence of massive conflict on the ground that doesn’t include air warfare at the moment, it’s a question of how soon the situation improves and if there is clarity on governance and chain of commands in Kabul.

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Following the 9/11 attacks, the Taliban government shut down Afghanistan’s airspace on September 16, 2001. It was estimated that 120 daily flights across Afghan airspace were redirected south of the Himalayas toward India. The diversion of route meant expensive travel due to additional fuel and travel time.

The Kabul Air Control Center that exists today came into existence on July 12, 2005. The Afghanistan air routes are used to shorten the distance between Asian and European countries. Considering that Afghanistan is a land-locked country with no direct access to international seas, the “over flight fees” collected from the international commercial airlines becomes a significant source of income for the local government and it is unlikely that the new Taliban government would prefer to close this crucial revenue stream.

Earlier in July, the US Federal Aviation Administration imposed restrictions on flights operating below 26,000 feet, which was later followed by Canada, Britain, Germany and France who advised airlines to maintain an altitude of at least 25,000 feet. International commercial flights usually fly around 31,000 feet over Afghanistan airspace.

“Overflying Afghanistan may not be that risky for flights coming from, let’s say England to India. They can deviate a little bit to Tehran and come back, but the question is who is going to give the permission to the overhead flight for the safety and security of these flights unless there is a steady government,” Panesar said.